The SouthernLUXE Letter

Dear friends,

If you have followed the market headlines this year, you have probably seen two very different versions of the story. One says everything is crashing. The other says nothing ever changes. Neither is true. What has actually happened over the past several months is calmer, and frankly more interesting: our market went from running hot to running steady, and that changes the playbook for buyers and sellers alike.

The clearest signal: a market that finally feels normal

Start with inventory. Active listings across Williamson County have climbed past 1,600, compared with fewer than 1,000 just a few years ago, and months of supply has settled near four months, which puts us in balanced territory. For buyers, that means leverage: room to negotiate on price, on closing costs, on inspection findings, and on timing. For sellers, it means discipline: the first two weeks a home is on the market still matter most, and honest pricing from day one matters more than ever. I wrote the full breakdown of what this shift means in Williamson County's Market Just Shifted, and it is the most useful market read I have published in months.

No crash, no boom

And those crash predictions? The data says no. Home values are still rising, about 1.7 to 1.8 percent year over year, which is not a boom and not a bust. It is a market cooling into something closer to the long-run norm. The deeper reason is structural: Williamson County keeps adding jobs and people, and a countywide housing study projects a shortfall of more than 10,000 units by 2030. Supply still trails demand, just without the frenzy. That is why I keep saying the healthiest position this county has been in for years can look boring from the outside. I explain the full picture in No Crash, No Boom: Why Williamson County Prices Are Stabilizing.

There is no single market

One thing I tell every client: "the market" is not one number. It is a stack of smaller markets sorted by price, and right now they are moving in different directions. At the very top, homes priced at $3 million and above have climbed to nearly 11 months of supply, which means luxury sellers need patience and positioning, while luxury buyers have a rare window of time and leverage. In the middle sits the balanced territory I described above. At the entry level, almost nothing: at the time of the county's housing study, there were three homes for sale under $300,000, full stop. I wrote about the cooling top end in The Ultra-Luxury Market Is Cooling, and about the entry-level gap in The Missing Middle.

Where buyers are actually landing

Two clear answers. The luxury corridors of Brentwood and Franklin still draw serious, well-funded demand from relocating executives, families trading up, and buyers carrying equity from other markets. Meanwhile, first-time buyers and growing families are voting with their GPS, heading to Spring Hill and further south into Maury County, where new construction and price per square foot line up better with a first-home budget. If you are a young family, the honest advice is that your search may need to be wider than Franklin proper. That is not a compromise; it is often the smartest move on the board. I mapped it all in Where Are Young Families Actually Buying?

What the cranes are telling us

New construction now makes up about one in four active listings, and more than half of what is being built is priced between $1 million and $2 million, a bet on the move-up buyer that is paying off. What is not being built is the entry level, which is why the affordable shortage is not closing on its own. The good news: the first serious workforce housing in years is finally moving forward, from Franklin Flats, 212 units just off the Mack Hatcher corridor, to a public-private homeownership project bringing more than 200 condominiums to the same corridor for the teachers, nurses, and service workers the county depends on. Two reads worth your time: What's Actually Getting Built and Workforce Housing Is Coming.

Two practical notes before I let you go

If you are buying, remember that since August 2024, Tennessee buyers sign a written buyer representation agreement before touring homes, and that agreement puts your agent's compensation in writing. It sounds like paperwork; it is really transparency, and a well-drafted agreement protects you. And whether you are buying or selling, do not let the market's temperature set your thermostat. Adrenaline makes for expensive decisions; patience and real data make for good ones. I walked through both in Who Pays the Buyer's Agent in Nashville Now? and How Not to Overpay When Buying a Home in Franklin.

One note on the calendar: Fall is quietly the most serious season in Franklin. The buyers still looking after Labor Day are motivated, there is less noise, and a realistic price meets real buyers. If 2026 is your year to make a move, October is not a bad month to start the conversation. I wrote about buying and selling by the season earlier this year.

I will finish where I always do. Whether you are buying your first home, selling the one you raised your kids in, or just trying to understand what your equity really means, I would rather talk with you than guess at your plans, and I am only a phone call away. Reach out with any questions...we're here for you!